Flooding models predicted for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
Increased risk of flooding due to climate change doesn’t only affect gardeners and what plants we can grow but the entire country, both environmentally and economically.
With the huge amount of development on flood plains, this is a problem that can’t be ignored, so data specialist Landmark Information, flood modelling experts Ambiental Risk Analytics and gas network Wales and West Utilities (WWU) have launched the first national flood map.
UK climate change predictions indicate that the nation is likely to see increases in rainfall frequency and intensity.
The map includes current and future predictive flood scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, meaning plans can be made to adapt, removing the need to create manual estimations.
Scenarios for future flooding
Ten flood scenarios are presented in Ambiental’s FloodFutures™, with data provided for the present day and three different emissions scenarios in three future time epochs based on the Met Office’s UKCP09 climate predictions.
Data incorporates the latest river flow, rainfall, sea level rise and climate change predictions available, providing insight into flood hazards and the impact on property, river banks, transport networks and bridges.
WWU is the first utility company in the UK to use the data as part of its Climate Change Adaptation Risk Assessment, Reporting and Investment requirements, as required by the government’s Climate Change Adaptation Reporting guidelines.
Impact on gas pipes
It can assess how flood risk is predicted to vary locally and regionally at different times and under different emissions scenarios and the impact that could have on gas, where pipes may be exposed by river erosion.
This will allow the company protect the network earlier and at a lower cost.
Oliver Lancaster, future of energy project manager for WWU said: “Being able to analyse future flood scenarios is hugely beneficial for us, so we can determine the impact of climate change on our gas network and the services we deliver to our customers.”
Increased rainfall and intensity
Tom Telford, of Landmark Information, said: “UKCP09 climate scenarios modelled by the Met Office indicate that Great Britain is likely to experience increased rainfall frequency and intensity in the future.
“As a consequence, it is predicted that flood hazards will generally increase over time, through more severe events occurring at a greater frequency, compounded by rising sea levels.
“The modelling process has created a new type of flood map which reveals insights into future flood hazards.”
For more information visit www.landmark.co.uk and https://www.ambientalrisk.com/future-flooding-changing-climate-solving-problem/