Flooding models predicted for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
A national flood map has been launched due to the increased risk of flooding due to climate change and the threat to the environment and economy.
With the huge amount of development on floodplains, this problem can’t be ignored. Data specialist Landmark Information, flood modelling experts Ambiental Risk Analytics and gas network Wales and West Utilities (WWU) have launched the first national flood map. UK climate change predictions indicate that the nation is likely to see increases in rainfall frequency and intensity. Read more about coping with flooding and waterlogging in your garden.
National flood map – Scenarios for future trouble spots
The map includes current and future predictive flood scenarios. These are for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Plans adapt, removing the need for manual estimations.
Ten flood scenarios appear in Ambiental’s FloodFutures™. Data is provided for the present day and three different emissions scenarios in three future time epochs. This is based on the Met Office’s UKCP09 climate predictions.
Data incorporates the latest river flow, rainfall, sea level rise and climate change predictions. This provides insight into flood hazards. It also shows the impact on property, river banks, transport networks and bridges.
Impact on gas pipes
WWU is the first utility company in the UK to use the data as part of its Climate Change Adaptation Risk Assessment, Reporting and Investment requirements, as required by the government’s Climate Change Adaptation Reporting guidelines.
It assesses the prediction of flood risk and how it varies locally and regionally at different times and under different emissions scenarios. The impact can affect gas, with river erosion on pipes. This will allow the company to protect the network earlier and at a lower cost.
Oliver Lancaster, future of energy project manager for WWU, said: “Being able to analyse future flood scenarios is hugely beneficial for us, so we can determine the impact of climate change on our gas network and the services we deliver to our customers.”
National flood map – Increased rainfall and intensity
Tom Telford, of Landmark Information, said: “UKCP09 climate scenarios modelled by the Met Office indicate that Great Britain is likely to experience increased rainfall frequency and intensity in the future.
“As a consequence, flood hazards generally increase over time, through more severe events occurring at a greater frequency, compounded by rising sea levels. The modelling process has created a new type of flood map which reveals insights into future flood hazards.”
For more information, visit www.landmark.co.uk and www.ambientalrisk.com.
